Fermi Paradox Discussion

[Royal]

The Fermi paradox (or Fermi's paradox) is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilization and humanity's lack of contact with, or evidence for, such civilizations.[1] The basic points of the argument, made by physicists Enrico Fermi and Michael H. Hart, are:

The Sun is a young star. There are billions of stars in the galaxy that are billions of years older;

Some of these stars likely have Earth-like planets[2] which, if the Earth is typical, may develop intelligent life;

Presumably some of these civilizations will develop interstellar travel, a technology Earth is investigating even now;

At any practical pace of interstellar travel, the galaxy can be completely colonized in a few tens of millions of years. According to this line of thinking, the Earth should have already been colonized, or at least visited. But no convincing evidence of this exists. Furthermore, no confirmed signs of intelligence elsewhere have been spotted, either in our galaxy or the more than 80 billion other galaxies of the observable universe. Hence Fermi's question, "Where is everybody?"


"Where is everybody?" Possible Explanations as explained on Wikipedia

It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy others?
Another possibility is that an intelligent species beyond a certain point of technological capability will destroy other intelligence as it appears, as is exemplified by the theorised extermination of Neanderthals by early humans. The idea that something, or someone, is destroying intelligent life in the universe has been well explored in science fiction[Note 5] and scientific literature.[7] A species might undertake such extermination out of expansionist motives, paranoia, or simple aggression. In 1981, cosmologist Edward Harrison argued that such behavior would be an act of prudence: an intelligent species that has overcome its own self-destructive tendencies might view any other species bent on galactic expansion as a kind of virus.[56] It has also been suggested that a successful alien species would be a superpredator, as is Homo sapiens.

Can be one or many "tyrannical super moderators" may send and use messengers to form cults (religions) and impede progress of other civilizations for many reasons. In a more modern setting, this is practiced on less advanced civilizations/countries on Earth. The advanced CIV may empower a rebel group so that they may be strong enough to take out a developing society that will enable them to control their own resources or ally with nations in the region creating pacts and forming larger alliances.

[Royal]

Human beings were created alone?
Religious and philosophical speculation about extraterrestrial intelligent life long predates modern scientific inquiry into the subject. Greek philosophers Leucippus, Democritus, and Epicurus (5th and 4th centuries BC) suggested that there may be other inhabited worlds. Some religious thinkers, including the Jewish philosopher Rabbi Hasdai Crescas (c. 1340–1410/1411) and the Christian philosopher Nicholas of Cusa (1401–1464), also put forward their views of the possibility of such extraterrestrial intelligence.

On the other hand, philosophers such as Aristotle and religious thinkers such as Thomas Aquinas claim that human beings are unique in the divine plan and counsel against belief in intelligent life on other worlds.[61] Aristotle believed the element of the heavens was Fire, as opposed to Earth, and so the heavens could not support life.[62] Thomas Aquinas additionally believed the uniqueness of God implied the uniqueness of Earth, and also notes the Bible refers to the world in the singular.[63]
Religious reasons for doubting the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life resemble some forms of the Rare Earth Hypothesis.

The argument here would be a teleological form of the strong anthropic principle: the universe was designed for the express purpose of creating human (and only human) intelligence.[64] This argument presupposes that a prior advanced intelligence existed in order to create human life, which might pose the question whether that intelligence was the only one to exist before it created us, but the perspective is a philosophical and abstract one.

To me, this presents a simulation theory, where the figure we call god "coded" a reality for us to express ourselves. If this is the case, what reason can it be for? OPtimists would believe it's a teaching center or perhaps a very advanced role playing game. A pessimist can speculate that Earthly existence is some sort of punishment. The religion of buddhism believe that we are in hell:

The Buddha's Teaching shows us that there are heavens and hells not only beyond this world, but in this very world itself. Thus the Buddhist conception of heaven and hell is very reasonable. For instance, the Buddha once said, 'When the average ignorant person makes an assertion to the effect that there is a Hell (patala) under the ocean he is making a statement which is false and without basis. The word 'Hell' is a term for painful sensations. 'The idea of one particular ready-made place or a place created by god as heaven and hell is not acceptable to the Buddhist concept.

The fire of hell in this world is hotter than that of the hell in the world-beyond. There is no fire equal to anger, lust or greed and ignorance. According to the Buddha, we are burning from eleven kinds of physical pain and mental agony: lust, hatred, illusion sickness, decay, death, worry, lamentation, pain(physical and mental), melancholy and grief. People can burn the entire world with some of these fires of mental discord.
http://www.buddhanet.net/budsas/ebud/wh ... ev/303.htm

Which would change Fermi's question from "Where is everybody" to "What did we do?" Possible intergalactic war? A programmed Homo Sapien race tries to exploit resources from what seems like a vulnerable grey alien race?

They do exist, but we see no evidence?
It may be that technological extraterrestrial civilizations exist, but that human beings cannot communicate with them because of constraints: problems of scale or of technology; because they do not wish to communicate or their nature is simply too alien for meaningful communication, or perhaps even be recognized as technology.

How many Icelandic people visit Crenshaw to say "We exist"? I call it "Ghetto Earth" theory. Where Earth with all it's glamour, may not be that rare and beautiful as we think.

[Royal]

Camouflage
It may be that advanced civilizations a) have very potent offensive capabilities and hence b) they also have highly effective means of hiding. Take Australia as an example. Its fauna and flora has had more time to evolve than any other land mass in the world (because continental drift happened to keep it in the same climatic zone), and it can be seen to have animals and plants with the most potent offensive capabilities found on the planet. Australia's fauna and flora also provides many of the best examples of hiding and camouflage. Extraterrestrial civilisations, by the common arguments, have had considerably longer to evolve than we have and thus these offensive and hiding capabilities are probably extremely advanced. Another example is that the default pattern on earth when a more advanced civilisation meets a less advanced one, the less advanced one is conquered, subjugated and even destroyed. The suggestion is that civilisations which figure this pattern out will find excellent ways of hiding their presence from others. Our science, since its inception continues to make regular discoveries that do not fit with previous paradigms. Thus it is arguably likely that advanced civilisations have advanced ways of hiding which are not understood by our current science.

This is one of my favorite theories, because it appears the most probable to me. In the past, Hollywood displayed the idea that invaders will be in metallic spaceships and wearing spacesuits. The goal of the invader is to make the fighter "stop fighting". So projectiles, and high temperature lasers, may not be in their arsenal if they have advanced techniques to make their target simply give up or assimilate to their side.

Intrusion can be just as advanced, for an example the Africanized Honey Bees- Small swarms are capable of taking over European hives by invading the hive and establishing their own queen after killing the European queen. Therefore, an invading race would only need a select few look alike humans to change the course of mankind- for better or worse.

Communication is improbable due to problems of scale
See also: Relativity of simultaneity

No comment.

It is too expensive to spread physically throughout the galaxy
See also: Project Daedalus, Project Orion (nuclear propulsion), and Project Longshot
Many assumptions about the ability of an alien culture to colonize other stars are based on the idea that interstellar travel is technologically feasible. While the current understanding of physics rules out the possibility of faster than light travel, it appears that there are no major theoretical barriers to the construction of "slow" interstellar ships. This idea underlies the concept of the Von Neumann probe and the Bracewell probe as evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence.

If ET purpose was first to explore, and there were more efficient means to do so, would we see it? Take into consideration of dimensions or maybe a holographic reality with layers. Would they move along a layer in physics that we currently don't know much of? Thousands, maybe millions of people in our history, have experience either a near death experience (NDE) , an out -of-body experience (OBE), or a form of metaphysics. How does science/physics reconcile that with the current models?

[Royal]

Human beings have not been searching long enough
Humanity's ability to detect and comprehend intelligent extraterrestrial life has existed for only a very brief period—from 1937 onwards, if the invention of the radio telescope is taken as the dividing line—and Homo sapiens is a geologically recent species. The whole period of modern human existence to date (about 200,000 years) is a very brief period on a cosmological scale, while radio transmissions have only been propagated since 1895. Thus it remains possible that human beings have neither been searching long enough to find other intelligences, nor been in existence long enough to be found.

I relate this concept to the pursuit of flight. The idea to fly can be seen as early as 1505 in the drawings of Leonardo Di Vinci. It was 398 years later when mankind learned how to fly. Maybe the situation of contact with E.T. is the same, and it's based on technology, PERCEPTION(s), and/or mankind's ability to maintain peace.

Humans are not listening properly
There are some assumptions that underlie the SETI search programs that may cause searchers to miss signals that are present. For example, the radio searches to date would completely miss highly compressed data streams (which would be almost indistinguishable from "white noise" to anyone who did not understand the compression algorithm). Extraterrestrials might also use frequencies that scientists have decided are unlikely to carry signals, or do not penetrate our atmosphere (e.g., gamma rays), or use modulation strategies that are not being looked for. The signals might be at a data rate that is too fast for our electronics to handle, or too slow to be recognised as attempts at communication. "Simple" broadcast techniques might be employed, but sent from non-main sequence stars which are searched with lower priority; current programs assume that most alien life will be orbiting Sun-like stars.

The Wow of 1977 could of been a high compression signal, but if the technology could not handle the compression rate, much of the data is lost.

This concept is inverse to the "Ya'll is listening, but ya'll ain't hear me tho" Theory where the compression rate is too slow for intelligent life to interact with.

It may be that alien civilizations are detectable through their radio emissions for only a short time, reducing the likelihood of spotting them.
There are two possibilities in this regard: civilizations outgrow radio through technological advance or, conversely, resource depletion cuts short the time in which a species broadcasts.
The first idea, that civilizations advance beyond radio, is based in part on the "fiber optic objection": the use of high power radio with low-to-medium gain (i.e., non-directional) antennas for long-distance transmission is wasteful of spectrum, yet this "waste" is precisely what makes these systems conspicuous at interstellar distances. Humans are moving to directional or guided transmission channels such as electrical cables, optical fibers, narrow-beam microwave and lasers, and conventional radio with non-directional antennas is increasingly reserved for low-power, short-range applications such as cell phones and Wi-Fi networks. These signals are far less detectable from space...

...This is essentially the solution, "Everyone is listening, no one is sending."

Depending on how a civilization evolves, the theory proposes that an surviving civilizations will have a short window where it broadcasts it's existence into the galaxy before it develops more technically advanced methods to conceal or hide transmission.

[Royal]

They tend to experience a technological singularity
See also: Sentience Quotient and Matrioshka brain
Another possibility is that technological civilizations invariably experience a technological singularity and attain a posthuman (or more properly, post-biological) character. Hypothetical civilizations of this sort may have advanced drastically enough to render communication impossible. The intelligences of a post-singularity civilization might require more information exchange than is possible through interstellar communication, for example. Or perhaps any information humanity might provide would appear elementary, and thus they do not try to communicate, any more than human beings attempt to talk to ants—even though we do ascribe a form of intelligence to them. For example, a superintelligent civilization might consist of an advanced megastructure such as a Matrioshka brain or a black hole and communicate using neutrinos or by gamma-ray bursts at bandwidths that exceed our receiving capabilities.

A brain so large that large amounts of information is needed to satisfy a conversation. Perhaps a thousand years of history may be equivalent to 1 hr of good transmission.

The collective brain would analyze planets the contain "expired" or "junk information" and may instead send a select few advanced signals in their sleep to expedite the evolution process.

They are too busy online
It may be that intelligent alien life forms cause their own "increasing disinterest" with the outside world.[83] Perhaps any sufficiently advanced society will develop highly engaging media and entertainment well before the capacity for advanced space travel, and that the rate of appeal of these social contrivances is destined, because of their inherent reduced complexity, to overtake any desire for complex, expensive endeavors such as space exploration and communication. Once any sufficiently advanced civilization becomes able to master its environment, and most of its physical needs are met through technology, various "social and entertainment technologies", including virtual reality, are postulated to become the primary drivers and motivations of that civilization.

Virtual space would be incredibly safer than real outer space. Not only safe, but more entertaining given one with free will to do anything.

They are too alien
Another possibility is that human theoreticians have underestimated how much alien life might differ from that on Earth. Aliens may be psychologically unwilling to attempt to communicate with human beings. Perhaps human mathematics is parochial to Earth and not shared by other life,[84] though others argue this can only apply to abstract math since the math associated with physics must be similar in results, if not in methods.

If survival for the alien species depends on different senses than what is seen on Earth, than alien life would be accustomed to communicating with senses not familiar to us.

[Royal]

They are non-technological
It may be that at least some civilizations of intelligent beings are not technological, perhaps because it is difficult in their environment, or because they choose not to, or for other reasons yet unknown. Such civilizations would be very hard for humans to detect.[86] While there are remote sensing techniques which could perhaps detect life-bearing planets without relying on the signs of technology,[87][88] none of them has any ability to tell if any detected life is intelligent. Not even any theoretical methods for doing so have been proposed, short of an actual physical visit by an astronaut or probe. This is sometimes referred to as the "algae vs. alumnae" problem.

If life evolved not to exploit resources and achieve a balance with the planet successfully, then searching for other civilizations wouldn't be on their to-do list.

The evidence is being suppressed
It is theoretically possible that SETI groups are not reporting positive detections, or governments have been blocking extraterrestrial signals or suppressing publication of detections. This response might be attributed to National Security and Trade Interests from the potential use of advanced extraterrestrial technology or weapons.

Appears to be completely logical explanation.

They choose not to interact with us
In these scenarios, alien civilizations exist that are technically capable of contacting Earth, but explicitly choose not to do so. This is the official position of the Earth today; we listen (SETI), but except for a few small efforts, do not explicitly transmit. Of course if all, or even most, civilizations act the same way, the galaxy could be full of civilizations eager for contact, but everyone is listening and no-one is transmitting. This is the so-called SETI Paradox.

Earth is purposely not contacted (The zoo hypothesis)

Much how the NSA listens to everything and passes information on to somewhere else. How many people actually knew they had the capability to listen before the leaks? How can that be related to how people believe in E.T. involvement?

[Royal]

Schematic representation of a planetarium simulating the universe to humans.
The "real" universe is outside the black sphere, the simulated one projected on/filtered through it.
Main article: Zoo hypothesis
The zoo hypothesis states that superintelligent extraterrestrial life exists and does not contact life on Earth to allow for its natural evolution and development.[96]
These ideas are perhaps most plausible if there is a relatively universal cultural or legal policy among a plurality of extraterrestrial civilizations necessitating isolation with respect to alien life. In a Universe without a hegemonic power, random civilizations with independent principles would, in all likelihood, make contact. This makes a crowded Universe with clearly defined rules seem more plausible.

I could see this as a possibility to protect the planet from rogue aliens from coming here that directly or indirectly form religions and cause the subsequent chaos.

Earth is purposely isolated (planetarium hypothesis)
Main article: Planetarium hypothesis
A related idea is that, beyond a certain distance, the perceived universe is a simulated reality. The planetarium hypothesis[98] holds that beings may have created this simulation so that the universe appears to be empty of other life.

What a downer it would be if we were the equivalent to a Tamagotchi.

The Tamagotchi (たまごっち Tamagocchi?) is a handheld digital pet, created in Japan by Akihiro Yokoi of WiZ and Aki Maita of Bandai. It was first sold by Bandai in 1996 in Japan. As of 2010, over 76 million Tamagotchis have been sold world-wide.

It is dangerous to communicate
An alien civilization might feel it is too dangerous to communicate, either for us or for them. After all, when very different civilizations have met on Earth, the results have often been disastrous for one side or the other, and the same may well apply to interstellar contact.[99] Even contact at a safe distance could lead to infection by computer code[100] or even ideas themselves[101] (see meme). Perhaps prudent civilizations actively hide not only from us but from everyone, out of fear of other civilizations.

Even from a biological perspective.

The number of bacteria living within the body of the average healthy adult human are estimated to outnumber human cells 10 to 1.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 085914.htm

Would we want alien bacteria or viruses here? Would they want to risk that exposure with us? They would prefer to Skype.

[Royal]

They are here unobserved
It may be that intelligent alien life forms not only exist, but are already present here on Earth. They are not detected because they do not wish it, human beings are technically unable to, or because societies refuse to admit to the evidence.[102] Several variations of this idea have been proposed:
Carl Sagan and Iosif Shklovsky[103] argued for serious consideration of "paleocontact" with extraterrestrials in the early historical era, and for examination of myths and religious lore for evidence of such contact. Sagan and Shklovsky noted that many or most religions were founded by men who claimed contact with supernatural entities who bestowed wisdom, guidance and technology, citing the fish-god Oannes as a particularly salient example.

It is possible that a life form technologically advanced enough to travel to Earth might also be sufficiently advanced to exist here undetected. In this view, the aliens have arrived on Earth, or in our solar system, and are observing the planet, while concealing their presence. Observation could conceivably be conducted in a number of ways that would be very difficult to detect. For example, a complex system of microscopic monitoring devices constructed via molecular nanotechnology could be deployed on Earth and remain undetected, or sophisticated instruments could conduct passive monitoring from elsewhere while concealing themselves with stealth technologies that need not be much more advanced than current terrestrial ones.

From nanotechnology to human avatars, anything can be alien right under our own noses.

[DwightSwift]

Thanks for such a philosophical and abstract post. Study the life of Ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle who made significant and lasting contributions to this subject: http://bluetoothdouchebag.com/

Repaired the link

It was mistakenly linked to bigpaperwriter dot com

[Pigeon]

Damn, more spam...