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 NSA and SSL 
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Post NSA and SSL
The Tinfoil Hat Spectrum

I’m going to refer to the next batch of attacks as ‘tinfoil hat‘ vulnerabilities. Where the previous issues all leverage well known techniques, each of the following proposals require totally new cryptanalytic techniques. All of which is a way of saying that the following section is pure speculation. It’s fun to speculate, of course. But it requires us to assume facts not in evidence. Moreover, we have to be a bit careful about where we stop.

So from here on out we are essentially conducting a thought-experiment. Let’s imagine the NSA has a passive SSL-breaking capability; and furthermore, that it doesn’t rely on the tricks of the previous section. What’s left?

The following list begins with the most ‘likely’ theories and works towards the truly insane.

Breaking RSA keys. There’s a persistent rumor in our field that NSA is cracking 1024-bit RSA keys. It’s doubtful this rumor stems from any real knowledge of NSA operations. More likely it’s driven by the fact that cracking 1024-bit keys is highly feasible for an organization with NSA’s resources.

How feasible? Several credible researchers have attempted to answer this question, and it turns out that the cost is lower than you think. Way back in 2003, Shamir and Tromer estimated $10 million for a purpose-built machine that could factor one 1024-bit key per year. In 2013, Tromer reduced those numbers to about $1 million, factoring in hardware advances. And it could be significantly lower. This is pocket change for NSA.

Along similar lines, Bernstein, Heninger and Lange examined at the feasibility of cracking RSA using distributed networks of standard PCs. Their results are pretty disturbing: in principal, a cluster about the size of the real-life Conficker botnet could do serious violence to 1024-bit keys.

Given all this, you might ask why this possibility is even in the ‘tinfoil hat’ category. The simple answer is: because nobody’s actually done it. That means it’s at least conceivable that the estimates above are dramatically too high — or even too low. Moreover, RSA-1024 keys are being rapidly being phased out. Cracking 2048 bit keys would require significant mathematical advances, taking us much deeper into the tinfoil hat.**

Cracking RC4. On paper, TLS supports a variety of strong encryption algorithms. In practice, about half of all TLS traffic is secured with the creaky old RC4 cipher. And this should worry you — because RC4 is starting to show its age. In fact, as used in TLS it’s already vulnerable to (borderline) practical attacks. Thus it seems like a nice candidate for a true cryptanalytic advance on NSA’s part.

Unfortunately the problem with this theory is that we simply don’t know of any attack that would allow the NSA to usefully crack RC4! The known techniques require an attacker to collect thousands or millions of ciphertexts that are either (a) encrypted with related keys (as in WEP) or (b) contain the same plaintext. The best known attack against TLS takes the latter form — it requires the victim to establish billions of sessions, and even then it only recovers fixed plaintext elements like cookies or passwords.

The counterargument is that the public research community hasn’t been thinking very hard about RC4 for the past decade — in part because we thought it was so broken people had stopped using it (oops!) If we’d been focusing all our attention on it (or better, the NSA’s attention), who knows what we’d have today.

If you told me the NSA had one truly new cryptanalytic capability, I’d agree with Jake and point the finger at RC4. Mostly because the alternatives are far scarier.

New side-channel attacks. For the most part, remote timing attacks appear to have been killed off by the implementation of countermeasures such as RSA blinding, which confound timing by multiplying a random blinding factor into each ciphertext prior to decryption. In theory this should make timing information essentially worthless. In practice, many TLS implementations implement compromises in the blinding code that might resurrect these attacks, things like squaring a blinding factor between decryption operations, rather than generating a new one each time. It’s quite unlikely there are attacks here, but who knows.

Goofy stuff. Maybe NSA does have something truly amazing up its sleeve. The problem with opening this Pandora’s box is that it’s really hard to get it closed again. Did Jerry Solinas really cook the NIST P-curves to support some amazing new attack (which NSA knew about way back in the late 1990s, but we have not yet discovered)? Does the NSA have a giant supercomputer named TRANSLTR that can brute-force any cryptosystem? Is there a giant quantum computer at the BWI Friendship annex? For answers to these questions you may as well just shake the Magic 8-Ball, cause I don’t have a clue.

https://blog.cryptographyengineering.co ... break-ssl/

Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:58 am
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