Mon October 3, 2016
If history is any guide, provocative actions from North Korea can be expected around the time of US elections, a new study says.
Over the past 60 years, North Korea's leaders have attempted to incite tensions around the time of American elections -- especially in recent years, the study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies says.
For example, North Korea conducted a missile test and then a nuclear test shortly after President Barack Obama was elected.
"Doing a major test would be a way of trying to intimidate the incoming president," said Victor Cha, one of the study's authors. "North Korea chooses particular windows that they know will gain maxmum attention from the world, and the US in particular."
"It could be a sixth nuclear test, it could be launching of their rocket which put a satellite in orbit," Cha added.
The study is scheduled to be published this week on the CSIS website Beyond Parallel.
But some analysts see a shift in North Korea's provocations, from symbolic actions to concrete military tests, since Kim Jong Un took power after his father's death in 2011. These analysts see a decrease in deadly provocations that are primarily symbolic, such as the 2010 shelling of the disputed South Korean island Yeonpyeong, or the 2010 sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan with a torpedo.
Only one has occurred recently -- the placing of land mines in the demilitarized zone, which injured two South Korean soldiers last year.
"Nothing as aggressive as we saw under his father," said Ken Gause, who analyzes North Korea's leaders for CNA Corp. "Kim Jong Un, with the exception of the August crisis of last year, he has pretty much restricted his provocations to missile tests, nuclear tests, and cyber attacks."
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/politics/ ... index.html