CME is the thing to worry about...not a flare.
"CMEs are often associated with solar flares and other forms of solar activity, but a broadly accepted theoretical understanding of these relationships has not been established." ..."The early evolution of CMEs is frequently associated with other solar phenomena observed in the low corona, such as eruptive prominences and solar flares. CMEs that have no observed signatures are sometimes referred to as stealth CMEs"
In 2012, the sun launched a few CMEs before launching a large full Halo CME.
"On 23 July 2012, a massive, and potentially damaging, solar superstorm (solar flare, CME, solar EMP) occurred but missed Earth,[50][51] an event that many scientists consider to be Carrington-class event."
Vulnerability implications for current world affairs.
That's a reason to be on edge. I assume this is part of the 11 year cycle since 2012, so in 2024 stay frosty. "Near solar maxima, the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima, there is about one CME every five days."
Future areas of interest (maybe you have answers too):
1) Predictable trends with x flares and CMEs at the lifetimes of the cycle. Stronger or weaker CMEs expected for the cycle?
Using this statement: "The revised prediction now places Solar Cycle 25's peak of activity known as "solar maximum" between January and October 2024 according to a NOAA statement. The peak will be earlier, stronger and last longer than estimates made in 2019. " https://www.space.com/solar-maximum-exp ... ns-suggest
The statement above hints that particular sets of recent data is used to expand probability of "stronger" than predicted activity in 2024. Still don't know how it relates to past cycles.
They "scientific observers" project an aurora of "we just don't know":
"The maximum is computed (as a convention) with the 13-month smoothed sunspot number (which means that for each month you use the value of six months before and six months after)," Solar expert center scientists told Space.com in an email. "The exact value of this quantity for time T is known only 6 months later."
Scientists only know if the solar maximum was achieved in a particular month if the next month's sunspot numbers are lower, therefore it is impossible to know earlier than seven months after this decline happens.
For example, let's say solar maximum did occur in February 2024. Scientists would need sunspot number data from the previous six months, the month of February 2024 and the next six months which would take us to August 2024. So we would have to wait until September 2024 to be able to definitively declare that solar maximum had occurred in February 2024.
ESA's solar scientists add that sometimes the sun can fool us; even when we think we have achieved solar maximum, the increased activity turns out to be only what's known as a local maxima, not representative of the entire cycle. Sunspot cycles can also experience a "double maxima," called a Gnevishev's gap, which means that the first peak might not be the highest and another large peak can follow. " https://www.space.com/solar-maximum-in- ... declare-it
2) Probabilities (numerical value) of CME direct hits for 7 day forecasts using flare/CME data? Are the events really random or can be accurately predicted? This llnk roughly predicts severity: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov